Why does China want to expand BRICS?

India celebrated Chandrayaan-3 landing on the moon with pomp and joy on 23 August 2023. As everybody was busy celebrating, a big change happened in BRICS summit South Africa next day. India will need to do some tightrope-walking to ensure that the BRICS forum is not hijacked by China to advance its expansionist-imperial project. As BRICS discussed expansion of its membership, most of the countries whose admission China is seeking are in its thrall, having borrowed heavily for that patently exploitative Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Since the formation of BRICS, there has been a sharp shift in the power equations between various nations. Russia has virtually become a second fiddle to China, especially after its adventure against Ukraine.

So, India was against arbitrary expansion of BRICS without a formula for entry. Brazil was also against the expansion. Indian EAM S Jaishankar and NSA Ajit Doval gave similar indication to maintain restrain on membership expansion during pre-summit meets with well-defined criteria for expansion. So, why the sudden change of heart in the last minute. Is it that Indian PM Modi could not handle the joint pressure of Chinese and host South Africa leadership to expand BRICS?

The expansion was huge. A group of 5 countries BRICS adding 6 new members at one go. BRIC started with 4 countries and added South Africa some time ago to become BRICS. Except one country from South America, other 5 new countries are from middle-east and Islamic countries. Three countries are oil exporters. These countries are –

Argentina – neutral country for India but part of BRI

Egypt – Pro China

Ethiopia – small country, no strong link with India

Iran – Pro China

Saudi Arabia – Pro China

UAE – Pro India

Out of these 6 countries, 3 are strongly pro-China and they may be keen to build an axis of China-Russia-North Korea-Pakistan-Iran-Turkey-Qatar. India has economic ties with Egypt and Saudi but not much strategic tie-ups with Iran. India’s economic ties with Iran is minimal like tourist visit, NRI presence, cultural exchange etc. Trade is poor as Chabahar port developed partly by India has not reached expected potential and a transit route to Russia (north-south trade corridor) is irregular. Some oil purchase on Rupee happened on-and-off when Iran faced sanctions but payment from Iran for Indian rice and other products faced delay.

Only UAE is pro-India in this new joinee group. Indian PM Modi received highest civilian award from Saudi, UAS and Egypt and hence it was difficult for him to refuse their entry into BRCIS but this may hit hard India in future. India signed FTA, a local currency payment mechanism and use of Indian digital payment (UPI) with UAE and UAE is India’s top 5 trading partner. India-UAE economic and political relations are excellent. PM Modi said, ‘India is of the view that with new members the group will become stronger. With these countries, our cooperation will see a new speed and energy. Other countries who wanted to join BRICS, will receive India's consensus to join as partner countries. India is of the view that with new members the group will become stronger.’ Only time will tell the impact of this expansion.

Saudi never offered discount to India and often cut oil production to harden oil price and cause trouble for India. Also Saudi is drifting towards China just like Iran. In situations like this, India may face isolation in the expanded group. China was strongly pushing for massive expansion of BRICS to make it another SCO type China club. China claimed 40 countries were keen to join BRCIS at the start of this 15th BRICS meet and 6 of them joined. China may push for its vassal states like Cuba, Cambodia, North Korea, Pakistan etc. as no entry parameters have been defined. India may have managed to block entry of Pakistan this time but for how long?

Current South African leader Cyril Ramaphosa is strongly pro-China and anti-Modi/BJP (not necessarily anti-India). When he was invited by Modi government as India’s Republic Day chief guest in 2019, Cyril Ramaphosa and his team had a long meeting with opposition leaders Dr. Manmohan Singh, Sonia and Rahul Gandhi during his short stay in New Delhi. He is pro-congress. During BRICS summit Ramaphosa himself received Chinese leader at airport and honoured him with South Africa’s highest civilian award. PM Modi was received by a junior minster and had to wait in the plane. Modi also invited Egyptian leader Abdel Fattah el-Sisi was chief guest of Indian Republic day in 2023 and there was discussion to sell some defence equipment like Tejas fighter jet and a land on Suez Canal. Nothing on that finalized and PM Modi’s return visit to Egypt recently was only about taking few photos on Pyramids and receiving highest civilian award from Egypt.

BRICS started in 2009 and initially western countries mocked this group as useless talking shop. But BRCIS has come a long way and now and now controls equal global nominal GDP as G-7 countries. As Europe is in recession, G-7 group clout will reduce in future. In this situation, western countries will take BRICS seriously.

Russian leader Putin skipped the 15th BRICS meet in South Africa 2023 as he faces arrest warrant. In his absence, Russian Foreign Minister attended. Initially, there was some doubt if PM Modi will attend in person or not. South African opposition leader openly asked PM Modi not to attend the meet so that international prestige and status of South African leader Cyril Ramaphosa nose dives globally. It was Ramaphosa who personally telephoned Modi and asked him to come and Modi agreed. This itself is a big blunder as he knew there will be major pressure to add new countries in BRCIS and push for a BRCIS currency in this meet. Modi should have skipped this event (with excuse like floods in Himalaya or something else) and instead EAM S jaishankar or VP Jagdeep Dhankar should have gone for the summit.

India’s EAM, S. Jaishankar in a press conference held on 3rd July, 2023 a month before BRICS summit, said that India has no plans for a BRICS currency. Nothing has been decided on BRCIS currency in the summit but Chinese pressure will be there. If BRCIS wants to de-dollarize, it is difficult to push Indian or Russian currency as an alternative. Russia is not keen to trade with Rupee and prefer Chinese currency. With new countries joining in, China may bribe them to push for Chinese currency as BRICS currency. Will BRICS drift towards SCO (Shanghai Cooperation Organisation) which is nothing but China club. SCO started with China and Russia as lead role and initially included 5 central Asian land locked ‘stan’ countries (like Uzbekistan). It subsequently expanded but Chinese dominance is overwhelming and not just in name. SCO do not allow English language and India’s request to use English was not accepted stating official language of SCO is Chinese and Russian. China recently objected presence of Sanskrit language in G-20 communication where India is the current host for 2023. This shows China has developed a policy to oppose every Indian move, be it protesting Pakistani terrorists against UNSC global terrorist labelling, boycotting G-20 meets in certain parts of India, opposing NSG membership etc.

Some Chinese geo-political think tank openly discuss in social media about their plans to elbow out India from SCO and BRICS. This is relatively easy in SCO but not easy in BRICS. But with expanded BRICS with 15-20 countries, reduced influence of Russia, India need to push hard against Chinese hegemony. India this year (2023) chaired the SCO summit which was made on-line summit in the last moment. Many people saw that as India’s intention to downgrade SCO. India also attending a rival QUAD security grouping which China do not like. If PM Modi thinks China has promised anything like reduction in border tension, increase Indian exports into China, allowing India into NSG etc., in exchange of allowing entry of new members into BRICS, then Modi is mistaken. The problems with China started when Indian leader Nehru signed Panchasheel Agreement in 1954. After a series of problems, blunders and final 1962 bloody war, Nehru admitted that he was living in a fool’s paradise and he got only lies and deceit from Chinese leaders. There is a Chinese proverb - don’t trust what communists say, trust what communists do.

Can Modi resist Chinese pressure? Time will tell.