Is China really thinking about war with India?

China’s current standoff with India at Ladakh since May 2020 is aimed at ‘salami slicing’ – which means taking away a small chunk of land from neighbour with gunboat diplomacy or strong arm tactics and without fighting a mini border war. It failed three years ago in 2017 at Doklam part of Bhutan but now they are back again.

Why 90% of Chinese arms & ammunition exports are in south Asia and around India, in Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Pakistan, Bangladesh? Why economically unviable port development with freehold rights in Colombo, Hambantota, Gwadar etc. Is this not "string of pearls" by China against India? Theses freehold rights can be used by PLA navy for gunboat diplomacy in due course. What about blocking India and other P5 countries attempt to ban a terrorist Masood Azhar & Lakhvi despite being getting isolated globally repeatedly? China talks about lack of consensus in UNSC when consensus actually exist when other 14 members of UNSC wants action against terrorists. What about opposition of India in NSG club and supporting terrorist state Pakistan who flouted all nuclear trade rules? China is blocking UNSC consensus.

When Britain withdrew from South Asia in 1947 after creating a messy partition, thus creating a weak independent India, China moved into Tibet in 1953 and occupied it with 17 point forceful agreement. When France withdrew from Vietnam in the 1950s, China occupied half of the Paracel Islands. China occupied the other half of the Paracel Islands in 1974 immediately after the Vietnam War ended and the United States withdrew from the region. After the Soviet Union withdrew from Vietnam, China attacked the Spratly Islands, controlled by Vietnam, in 1988. Along similar lines, after the U.S. withdrew from the Philippines, China occupied Mischief Reef, which is claimed by both the Philippines and Vietnam. China is emerging new occupation force after Europeans. Meanwhile China faught many wars after WWII, War with Soviet Union in 1968, with India in 1962, with Vietnam in 1979, with UN / US force in 1952 in Korea. Cat and mouse land / island grab games China playing with Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, Indonesia etc. in SCS and with Japan In ECS.

China’s chairman Mao said Tibet is like “palm” and Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan & Arunachal Pradesh are 5 fingers attached to the palm. Once we control the palm we can control the fingers. This is imperialist / expansionist / virtaarvad policy of China and they have eyes on Ladakh, Nepal, Sikkim, Bhutan & Arunachal Pradesh adjoining Tibet. When Indian PM Narendra Modi made first visit to Japan as PM in 2014, he clearly warned about ‘vistaarvad’ of a county in east Asia (easy to guess whom he was referring). Nepal may be the first victim as Nepali communists like Prachanda & Oli have become puppets of China due to heavy dole out of cash & playing only China card for their political ends. Chinese ballistic missiles such as the DF-31 long-range, road-mobile ICBM and DF-31A (a long range variant) & HQ-9 aimed at India have been deployed to Delingha, north of Tibet and at the city of Korla in Xinjiang. These are weapons of mass destruction.

China should reflect history (China almost daily asks Japan to reflect history) and see how they treated Indian leadership. Consider these cases: After Zhou Enlai visit to New Delhi where he promised that there will be no war, China attacked India in 1962 to teach Nehru a lesson. In 1991 when Indian President R Venkatraman, visited China, China exploded one megaton nuclear device. R Venkatraman then had to cut short his China visit. In 1979 Indian foreign minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee (who later became PM) was visiting China when China attacked Vietnam & Vajpayee had to cut short his China visit. In 2011 when Indian PM Manmohan Singh was travelling to China, China launched a white paper status on Tibet, snubbing India. Before 2012, Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s maiden visit to India, PLA soldiers penetrated 35 KM inside India in Ladakh area and stayed there for 3 weeks. In 2014, during Chinese President Xi India visit, PLA soldiers again entered Ladakh. Indian PM Modi promptly raised this issue with Xi. During May 2015 PM Modi’s visit to China, China issued a defence white paper to prepare from offshore water defense to blue water navy.

Beijing does not believe in a give and take policy. It believes that every other nation (read barbarians as per Chinese) being naturally lower in status, must accept this fundamental asymmetry. In the past, subservient kingdoms were expected to bring expensive annual presents to appease China’s emperors, must bend down multiple times (this was shown by last HK British governor Chris Patten in a BBC TV program) in front of China’s emperors, whereas today the Communist bosses in Beijing expect territory and acceptance of Chinese diktats to every neighbours. Every nation that has signed a border agreement with the Peoples’ Republic of China has had to cede territory. Even the tiny Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan (area 199,951 sq. km), was forced to give up 1,250 sq. km of its land to China under an unequal agreement signed in 1999. Local Kyrgyz leaders were so incensed with this unequal deal that many had demanded the impeachment of their then President. Tajikistan (area 143,100 sq. km was compelled to hand over 1,122 sq. km of territory to China. This led to massive protests in Tajikistan and took almost a decade to implement the treaty. In total, an estimated 16,000 sq. km of Central Asian lands have been acquired by China during the last two decades after disintegration of powerful Soviet Union. China took 5000 sq. km from Pakistan as ‘gift’. China is not settling boundary dispute with tiny Bhutan in last five decades as they know Bhutan will not give economic benefits to China until diplomatic relations are formed between them.

China should mention what all good work done by them in last 50 years to improve bilateral ties with India before asking India what they should do. China had few skeletons in its closet in early 1960’s – bird killing, cultural revolution, one child policy etc. which created huge resentment. In 1958 chairman Mao directed its people to kill all birds as they consume large amount of food grains. But instead of solving the grain shortage, this step detoriated famine as birds also eat insects. In absence of birds, insects like locusts multiplied which destroyed agriculture. In this famine, millions perished and economy moved to negative GDP by 1961. To divert attention, many educated urban Chinese (including current president Xi) were sent to rural areas to improve agriculture and India was attacked in 1962 to divert attention from domestic issues. China had a bitter experience of fighting against USA / UN in Korea in 1952 and hence they blamed the 1962 war on imaginary “foreword policy” of Nehru / India and USA / CIA. The real reason was domestic power struggle. Chinese attached suddenly with adequate planning and swiftly under the shadow of Cuban missile crisis. They had 7:1 advantage in numbers. Earlier in Korean war, China sent brute numbers of soldiers, many without guns and who will collect guns of fallen comrades to continue fight. That created waves and waves of Chinese soldiers fighting in Korea and later in Indian border. This brute manpower based war strategy will not work in 21st century. All major world powers (P4 out of P5) supported India and there was rumour that USA may support India with military logistics specially, fighter jets. This made China to back out from eastern part of the border voluntarily but they are still holding western part. Another output of the war was chairman Mao gave message to its biggest communist rival USSR, superpower USA leader JF Kennedy and India’s Nehru who seems to be behaving as if he is the real leader of newly independent third world countries. Khrushchev taunted the Chinese leadership after war thus: ‘China is now withdrawing its troops essentially to the same line at which the conflict broke out. Would it not have been better not to have advanced from there?’

McMahon line was created by British India which also included Burma in 1911 with then independent Tibet and hence Chinese approval not needed for this line to be valid. China accepted same McMahon line as valid border between China and independent Burma / Myanmar. This proves that McMahon line’s validity by Chinese govt, China cannot say, we accept half part (Burmese side) and do not accept other part of same McMahon line drawn and signed by same people on both sides. Currently Taiwan is separate entity which China claims to be its own province. Let’s consider a hypothetical condition where Taiwan (neither part of China nor strictly independent) signs a border agreement with Japan / USA, globally it will be considered a valid border treaty. Similarly, McMahon line border between India/Burma and Tibet is globally valid despite current position is China is occupying Tibet now. So, the only border dispute remaining is Akshai Chin area which China occupied illegally in 1962 war.

1978 Vietnam war was also due to power struggle inside China. War was necessary to support Deng’s modernization plans by highlighting the technological deficiencies of the PLA and keeping the army preoccupied. The war brought Deng precious time in his first full year in charge to cement his own power in Beijing, eliminating leftist rivals from the Maoist era. Combat with the Vietnamese proved to be the PLA’s blood test. After a few months of serious and careful preparation for a military ground campaign against Vietnam, Chinese spearheads, supported by 400 tanks and 1,500 artillery pieces, concurrently attacked in the direction of Vietnam’s border provincial capitals. Like in Korea and India war, the PLA relied on “human waves” of ragtag soldiers, a tactics enabled Chinese soldiers to completely destroy everything in their paths, overrun population centers, and occupy strategically important mountainous areas and high spots along the boundary.

In early March 1979, China suddenly declared its “lesson” to Vietnam was finished and began to withdraw completely on March 16. China blamed Vietnam’s attack on Kampuchea (Cambodia) as the reason for the war but it was due to internal power struggle in China. Though neither side publicized its casualties and the exact figures remain unclear, Western estimates run as high as 28,000 Chinese dead and 43,000 wounded, while the number of Vietnamese dead were estimated at under 10,000, thus proving that Vietnam gave a bloody nose to invading PLA soldiers. So, India and Vietnam war had similarity of power struggle issue inside China as root cause. Now after virus pandemic and negative GDP growth in China, power struggle may become reality in China. With this war posturing and recent statement of Chinese leadership to ‘prepare for war’ is attempt to create nationalism during difficult time. China is the real evil empire of Asia. At least western world is realising that and moving away from China with decoupling.

Picture source: Google