Is the BJP government in Uttar Pradesh getting worried about the support that Priyanka Gandhi is getting in UP and ordered her house arrest?

To answer this, one need to understand political dynamics of UP. Every state has its own political dynamics including UP.

Unlike Rajasthan and MP, where congress and BJP are primary rivals, UP has been a ‘four horse’ race with BJP, SP, BSP and congress getting votes share in that order. Division of vote always benefits the leader and in that regard, BJP will benefit most and congress will lose most in the scenario. Even BSP votes may shift to SP and BJP.

AAP is entering UP election for the first time and may eat congress votes as seen in last two Delhi state elections. Asaduddin Owaisi party may fragment more opposition votes.

Priyanka Vadra’s brooming / sweeping photo-ops may be good PR and hard work she is doing for the first time is appreciated may not be sufficient to convert to votes. Last time congress fought election with SP and lost. Fighting election alone in UP may lead to loss of security deposits.

Priyanka Vadra recently announced that 40% candidates in 2022 state election will be women. This is again good PR but may reduce chance of winning. For last three decades government and political parties are breaking their head to increase women’s representation in Parliament and Legislative Assembly without much success. Reservation for women proposal was also not successful as some parties or people (read peaceful community) are against this. Their logic is – giving ticket to a woman reduces change of winning! Under this circumstance, Priyanka Vadra’s 40% woman reservation may not happen in real terms.

Balancing act

Congress workers morale is down due to recent big ticket exits like Kamalapati Tripathi’s grandson and Jitendra Prasada’s son.

So, is BJP government in UP worried? You can make your conclusions.

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