What is the likelihood that Donald Trump's comments about brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan are true?

Indian PM Jawaharlal Nehru went to UN regarding Kashmir invasion by Pakistani raiders thinking the war may last for long which will drain resources of newly independent India. After the 1949 ceasefire in Jammu & Kashmir province of India, Nehru exhibited the proud, stubborn, independent streak that would guide his country’s foreign policy for decades to come. He told the US ambassador in Delhi that he was ‘tired of receiving moral advice from the United States’ and would not back down, ‘even if Kashmir, India, and the whole world went to pieces.’

North Korea’s invasion of South Korea in 1950 made Washington more determined than ever to halt communism’s spread, and India under Nehru remained non-committal to this cause. Nehru from his student days in Britain, was deeply influenced by Soviet communism and British communists. PM Nehru didn’t join the American efforts to halt spread of communism in Asia while Pakistan joined both the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization (SEATO) and the Central Treaty Organization (CENTO) in 1950s. These alliances were part of USA-led Cold War efforts to contain the spread of communism.

The result is Pakistan started getting huge military assistance from USA since 1950s. Nehru complained to USA that arms supply to Pakistan will extent the cold war into this region but due to his pro-communist tilt, he followed ‘Non-Alignment Policy’ which was actually pro-Soviet. In 1959, the US signed a bilateral defense agreement with Pakistan and subsequently Islamabad agreed to allow Washington to set up military and intelligence posts on its turf. The most preferred location was north of the country which is close to communist USSR and China. USA selected Chaklala Airbase (now called Nur Khan since 2012), Rawalpindi as it was the northern-most airbase in Pakistan. USA-USSR cold war which lasted for decades ended with break-up of USSR in 1991. Subsequently, Russia’s relations with USA improved and they even tried to join NATO. The relations again got strained after 2013 when Russia annexed Crimea region of Ukraine. The Russia-Ukraine war since 2022 again made these two countries strategic rivals again.

USA-India relations improved considerably after the 9-11 New York terr0r attack which exposed Pakistan’s global terr0r network ambition. USA also felt the need to develop strategic cooperation with India to balance aggressive China in Asia. India always had problems with Pakistan. The latest ‘Operation Sindoor’ 4 day areal battle in May 2025 between India and Pakistan caught USA off-guard. When Donald Trump was USA President for first time (2016-2020), India conducted trans-border raid on Pakistan based terr0r camp at Balakot following a major terr0r attack in Indian J&K at Pulwama. Donald Trump warned Pakistani PM Imran Khan that ‘India will do something big’ and after Balakot strike by IAF, USA and western allies didn’t condemn this cross-border attack from India at international forums. This indicated USA is drifting towards India. Donald Trump also publically stated that ‘USA got nothing but lies and deceit from Pakistan who received billions of dollars USA aid’. He even threatened to end Pakistani military aid.

Then came Pahelgam terr0r incident in J&K on 22 April 2025. As tension was rising between India and Pakistan, USA President Donald Trump (this time on his 2nd Presidency term), ignored this crisis and said they should settle the issue themselves (this is Indian view). USA State Department made a statement that supported India’s version on terr0rism. Even after Operation Sindoor hostility started on 7th May 2025, USA response was not against India. Marco Rubio on 9th May 2025 said that USA is not getting involved in the current conflict. But things changed next day after India fired BrahMos missiles at various Pakistan air bases with devastating effect.

Donald Trump and US administration suddenly became active on 10 May 2025 and claimed to have successfully negotiated a cease-fire between India and Pakistan to prevent further escalation in the conflict.

Marco Rubio claims USA monitors India-Pak situation every day after Operation Sindoor ceasefire

Even after the cease-fire, US claims to monitorng it. The reason for this monitoring is not peace or stability is South Asia but to protect the USA operated Nur Khan Airbase where even Pakistani air force personnel cannot go. This was again proved in first week of September 2025 when C-17 Globemaster cargo plane landed in this base (not in other air bases) as repair work started in this base three months after Operation Sindoor. No diplomats or politicians were present at the air base while senior Pakistani Army/PAF officials were present.

One Indian defence expert Retd. Gen. GD Bakshi narrated (video available in social media) that Indian BrahMos missiles was so accurate that in Nur Khan, it penetrated 5 meter thick concrete protection layer by using AC duct vent and destroyed part of the facility deep underground. How much true is this statement is anybody’s guess but it is clear that after midnight 9th May missile attacks on 11 Pakistani air bases, a cease-fire was hurriedly accepted by India and Pakistan by 10th May 2025 evening.

Donald Trump claims that it was he who intervened and brought the ceasefire by giving trade boycott threat. This statement was repeated by Donald Trump at various forums nearly 50 times over next four months. But Indian leader PM Modi cannot accept this statement politically as that would be suicidal and insists that ceasefire request came from Rawalpindi (Pakistan Army) and decision was bilateral with no involvement of USA as Indian objectives were already met.

Now it is clear that USA has an air force base in Pakistan on lease, probably since 1950s when military aid for Pakistan started. The aim of keeping this base is not target against India but it is target against Russia and China. There may be nukes kept here and that was the reason USA jumped into this cease-fire discussion on 10th May 2025. USA might have applied pressure on India to protect their assets in Pakistan but not discussed trade as an incentive. The Indian version also claims that trade was not discussed. USA subsequently imposed highest 50% tariff on India and this was probably due to Nur Khan air base losses.